Climate: at ENEA focus on new regional models and climate change impacts on tourism and agriculture

Regional Climate Models are the new frontier of the European climate modelling collaboration, with the purpose of providing information on ever more finite areas up to a resolution of 5-12 km. The objective is studying climate evolution, assessing the forecasted climate change on a local scale and developing regional climate services in the tourism, energy and agriculture sectors.

“If we look at large scale and regional climate models of the Mediterranean, we’ll find the same difference that there is between a low-resolution and a high-resolution image”. Gianmaria Sannino, Head of the ENEA Climate modelling and impacts Unit, said at the workshop “HyMex-baltic Earth-Joint regional climate system modelling for the European sea regions” organized by ENEA to compare the results obtained by the two European climate scientific communities, the Mediterranean, of which ENEA is a partner (HyMex-Hydrological cycle in Mediterranean experiment) and the Baltic (Baltic Earth), that uses regional climate models based on the analysis of several components, from the atmosphere to the sea, from ice to rivers.

“Global climate simulations remain the starting point – Sannino said - but also more detailed simulations are needed, like the regional models that constitute a sort of “climate microscope” capable of revealing otherwise invisible details. For instance, it is well known that the Mediterranean sea is getting warmer and saltier, that’s why it’s fundamental to consider the biogeochemical components in models to assess the local impacts of the phenomenon on the sea flora and fauna”.

Thanks to the regional climate models currently available, phenomena such as Mediterranean tropical like–cyclones – also called medicanes -  are better described, allowing to assess their number and intensity with a good level of accuracy. That’s why by 2020 the European Union aims at creating a European climate Service, the “Copernicus Climate Change Service” as the one  already in use in the meteorological sector.

“Our goal is ambitious but realistic – Sannino went on. By studying the evolution of climate it’s possible to assess the forecasted impact of climate change  and consequently develop regional climate services to provide data and information about key sectors like tourism, agriculture and energy, where the installation of wind turbines and solar plants is advantageous in the long-term” .

ENEA is the Italian member institution of the Scientific Committee of Med-CORDEX (Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), one of the 14 geographical areas of “CORDEX”, a project of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

ENEA is responsible for the database of Med-CORDEX, considered the most comprehensive and up-to-date source of climate predictions for the Euro-Mediterranean area.  A wealth of information the European partners implement and the accredited researchers consult to study the evolution of climate and its impacts on the air.

“The objective is the development of regional climate models increasingly accurate and reliable, projected beyond the 2100 time frame – Sannino concluded. If we want to meet this goal, the representation of the climate system on a regional scale has to be improved by the addition of the marine components, namely waves and biogeochemistry, that is to say the use of soil and the hydrologic cycle. In fact, on a regional scale, climate is greatly influenced by orography, rivers and lakes, poorly represented in global atmosphere and ocean circulation models. An example out of many is the phenomenon of the “deep convection in the Mediterranean sea” a sort of “deep breath” taken by the sea. In fact the Mediterranean is a miniature ocean supplying oxygen to the deep sea by means of convection, as it happens in the Gulf of Lion in France, where every year surface water cools and sinks at a 2500 meter depth delivering oxygen to the bottom of the sea”.

For more information please contact:

Gianmaria Sannino, Head of the ENEA Climate modelling and impacts Unit, gianmaria.sannino@enea.it

ENEA vero la COP21