Climate: ENEA- 2019, Italy towards 1% drop in greenhouse gas emissions

Change in the electric mix: coal -30%, gas + 15%

Italy is preparing to close 2019 with a 1% drop in greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to a less carbon intensive energy mix as a consequence of the replacement of coal with gas in electricity production.

However, in lack of a more sustained growth in renewable sources and energy efficiency, this is not enough to meet the objectives of the National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) and the transition to a low carbon economy.

It’s what emerges from the latest issue of the ENEA Analysis of the Italian Energy System, which shows for the first nine months of the year a 3.5% CO2 emission reduction in the electricity sector due to a greater use – with equivalent production - of gas (+ 15%), a lower use of oil products (-10%) and, above all, of coal (-30%); in the same period, emissions in the transport and civil sectors showed a 0.5% drop.

Overall, emissions decreased by 0.8% in nine months, estimated to reach over -1% on an annual basis. The Analysis also shows a substantial stability of renewables production in the first three quarters of the year, despite a slight recovery in the third quarter (+ 5% as compared to the same period in 2018) with wind and solar energy compensating for the drop in hydroelectricity.

In the first nine months of 2019, primary energy consumption decreased by about 1%, while final consumption recorded a -0.5%. "What’s positive is that in the thermoelectric sector decarbonisation is working, especially thanks to the phasing-out of coal", Francesco Gracceva, the ENEA researcher who coordinated the analysis, said.

"However, this is not enough to ensure the transition to a low carbon economy, in view of the more modest falls in emissions in other sectors and the flat trend of renewable sources which, at the end of the year, will presumably be stuck at 18% of total consumption, as compared to a 30% target  in 2030 as indicated by the PNIEC ", Gracceva continued.

This situation is stressed by a worsening (-8% on an annual basis) of the ISPRED index, developed by ENEA to measure the energy transition on the basis of price, security and decarbonisation trends.

To date, in order to achieve the objectives set by the PNIEC, Italy should cut greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 1.7% per year, whereas for 2019 a 1% reduction is estimated; moreover, as regards costs, “the international ranking of our Country – Gracceva pointed out - remains unflattering.

Non-domestic consumers pay the highest electricity bills in the EU for the three lowest consumption brackets, and even the highest consumption brackets, despite having a better situation, have electricity tariffs higher than the EU average.

For households, the figure is less negative overall, around the European average (approximately half of the EU population pays higher tariffs than Italy), but in the last three years the increases have been greater than both the average rate of the eurozone countries (3.1% versus 1.8%) and compared to inflation (3.1% versus 0.8%)".

As concerns security of the national energy system, the ENEA Analysis highlights an overall favorable scenario for the natural gas sector, thanks to the excess supply on the markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

In the third quarter in fact, the LNG share on Italian imports exceeded 20%, ranking second for the first time, behind the import of natural gas from Russia, with a very positive result in supply diversification, which favored filling of storage facilities- that in early winter are at record levels throughout Europe- bolstering supply security in the coming winter.

"The situation in the electricity sector is much less favorable, so much so that even the ENTSO-E Winter Outlook- the association of electricity grid operators in Europe- said that in the coming winter peak demands will be covered entirely by imports, and in case of significant unavailability of generation or transmission plants this may entail some problems ", Gracceva concluded.

For more information: https://www.enea.it/it/seguici/pubblicazioni/analisi-trimestrale-del-sistema-energetico-italiano/analisi-trimestrale-del-sistema-energetico-italiano