Energy: ENEA quarterly report, unprecedented growth of consumption (+24%) and emissions (+25%)
16/9/2021
Positive signs from the export of electric and hybrid vehicles
A sharp increase in energy consumption and CO2 emissions have occurred in Italy in the second quarter of the year. Climate factors and an increase in GDP (+17%) and industrial production (+34%) determined both a 24% increase in energy demand and, in parallel, carbon dioxide emissions (+ 25%), with repercussions on the energy transition in our Country, as highlighted in the latest issue of the ENEA's quarterly analysis of the national energy system, which also estimates a growing trend in energy demand and emissions of approximately 6% for the whole of 2021, in line with the trend of the main drivers of economic growth.
"By the end of the year we should have recovered over 60% of the energy consumption 'lost' in 2020, while we estimate a return to pre-pandemic levels between 2022 and 2023, according to current economic growth forecasts", pointed out Francesco Gracceva, the ENEA researcher who coordinated the analysis.
The increase in consumption was particularly high in April (+ 36%) due to colder temperatures compared to the same month of 2020, while the warmer weather in June caused a greater use of indoor cooling, with a consequent increase in energy demand ( + 15%). Among the sectors considered, transport contributed to the growth in consumption for a share of more than 50% in the quarter.
Considering the energy sources used, fossil fuels recorded strong increases: after the collapse in the second quarter of 2020, the demand for oil increased by 30%, natural gas by 21%, renewable sources and coal went down by 1% and 2% respectively. Electricity imports have almost quadrupled.
"The sharp increase in emissions is mainly attributable to transport (over 60%) and to a lesser extent to the civil sector, industry and power generation.
“The growth in emissions and the raised EU targets to 2030 shifted us away from the expected decarbonization trend. As for 2022, emissions are likely to stabilize at the levels expected by the end of 2021 ”, Gracceva explained.
The overall picture shows a further worsening of the ISPRED index, developed by ENEA to measure the progress of the energy transition in our country on the basis of the safety of the system, energy prices and decarbonisation. In the period April-June, the ISPRED decreased by 28% on the previous quarter and by 39% to the second quarter of 2020, reaching its historic low.
"The decrease in our synthetic index is largely linked to the increase in emissions, which has worsened the prospects for decarbonization. We are also witnessing persistent difficulties in the refining sector, which affect energy security and energy prices, especially in the electricity sector, which have reached ten-year highs for domestic consumers.
Moreover, the recent surge in wholesale gas and electricity prices has still partially pushed end users prices ", Gracceva pointed out.
The quarterly analysis also examines the national outlook on low carbon technologies, which show a growing trade deficit that went from 700 million euro in 2019 to 1.15 billion euro in 2020 (+ 65%), while in the first five months of 2021 was already 900 million euro (80% of the whole of 2020).
The biggest import goods are wind generators, lithium-ion accumulators and above all low-emission vehicles (BEV and PHEV) [1], which alone account for 60% of last year's deficit and almost 50% of the deficit of the first five months of 2021.
On the other hand, the solar thermal sector follows the opposite trend, with particular reference to exports of components for accumulators and wind systems (excluding generators) and photovoltaic cells. Positive the first signs of vitality of electric and hybrid vehicles export, despite its strong dependence on foreign countries.
In 2020, the export of electric vehicles grew from 15 to 268 million euro, to reach 350 millions in the first five months of the year, mostly to France and Germany. Hybrid vehicles went up from just over 2 million euro in 2019 to 27 millions in 2020, to approximately 20 millions in the first five months of 2021.
The complete analysis is available at:
[1] Battery Electric Vehicles e Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles.